COT... NASCAR's final solution for overtaking the NFL?

It's no secret that the upcoming switch to the Car Of Tomorrow is causing quite a bit of controversy amongst the NASCAR community. Drivers complain that the new models simply won't pass while owners are being put in a bind having to develop two completely different car programs simultaneously (to say nothing of the inherent difficulty of developing six distinct aero and handling packages for short -track, restrictor-plate, and mile and a half tracks). The only consensus seems to be that the new vehicles are butt-ugly and nearly indistinguishable from manufacturer to manufacturer. Everyone seems to be asking why a switch is necessary.

While the officials in Daytona claim that the COT will ultimately open NASCAR competition by reducing the costs to run a team the causal observer has to ask why this is necessary. A quick glance at the point standings shows 30-35 teams with solid ownership/sponsorship with the remaining qualifying positions going to an assortment of has-been's and never-were's. Personally I believe the COT, in conjunction with the Chase, is NASCAR's bid to unseat the NFL as America's #1 spectator sport. Just look at the parallels...

1. Equal Resources
-The NFL has a salary cap that ensures each team has an equal amount of resources (players) with which to compete, regardless of initial entry costs.
-NASCAR's COT ensures that all teams will have an equal amount of car with which to compete, regardless of initial entry costs.

2. Put it in the personnel's hands
-The NFL strictly regulates the equipment, down to wristbands, that each player may use during competition. This ensures that the outcome of every game is determined by the skill of a team's players and the adjustments that coaches make during a game.
-NASCAR strictly regulates the equipment, via templates and inspections, that each team may use during competition. This ensures that the outcome of every race is determined by the skill of a team's drivers and the adjustments that crew chief's make during a game.

3. Any Given Sunday
-The NFL prides itself on any team winning any game, regardless of the competition (week 7: Eagles 21, Bucs 23).
-NASCAR's COT ensures that at any given race, any driver could win. Basically, there is a higher probability of a newer, unskilled driver winning a race using the COT.

4. High Income
-With revenue-sharing and competitive parity every owner in the NFL is virtually guaranteed to make money.
-With every car having an equal chance to win every owner in NASCAR has ample opportunity to secure enough sponsorship to drive profitability.

Given that NASCAR wants to supplant the NFL it's necessary to analyze the changes that the COT will bring to the sport. Three arguments would seem to undermine NASCAR's reasoning for the COT.

1. Big Name Talent
-Juan Pablo Montoya and A.J. Allmendinger will be driving Nextel Cup in 2007. NASCAR veterans Ward Burton and Bill Elliot may race full or partial schedules in 2007. As elite talent from other race series jumps to NASCAR and absorbs the few remaining qualifying positions the COT seems unnecessary to "level" the playing field.

2. The Market
-Regardless of the type of vehicles NASCAR decides to run, talented racers will rise to the top. Drivers are the lifeblood of NASCAR and those who have an ample supply of talent will garner Top-5's and Top-10's. These drivers will gain the support of casual NASCAR fans.

3. Product Dilution
-The more level the playing field, the higher the number of single race winners. The casual fan may not continue to tune in if there is a lack of dominant drivers. Unlike the NFL, where team loyalty is based largely on a fan's affiliation with a city, NASCAR relies on sponsor/driver affiliation. A lack of continuity in the Top-10 means a lack of recognizable faces for casual fans.

NASCAR is clearly on the wrong track with the COT. Adding a playoff system to keep fans interested during the NFL regular season was a stroke of genius, however, "closing" up the competition will not strip viewers from the NFL. If anything it will alienate hardcore NASCAR fans hungry for distinct vehicles and familiar faces.